Games

Will VR Ever Go Mainstream? Revisiting the Potential of Virtual Reality Gaming

February 15, 2024

Will VR Ever Go Mainstream? Revisiting the Potential of Virtual Reality Gaming

Virtual reality (VR) has long captivated the imaginations of technologists, gamers, and science fiction fans alike. The idea of immersing oneself in a simulated 3D environment offers the potential for transformative gaming experiences, novel forms of communication and content, and much more. However, despite years of steadily advancing VR technology, it has yet to firmly break into the mainstream. This article will examine the trajectory of VR adoption, whether the time is right for mass market success, and what it will take for virtual reality gaming to reach its full potential.

The Promises and Pitfalls of Previous VR Attempts

The most recent wave of excitement around VR has been building since around 2010, when Palmer Luckey began work on the Rift prototype that would become the Oculus Rift. However, that was far from the first attempt at consumer VR.

Fizzled Launches in the 90s

In the 1990s, several companies tried unsuccessfully to launch VR to the masses.

Some key examples:

1991: Sega announced the Sega VR headset for the Genesis console. It never reached production due to technical difficulties.
1995: Nintendo launched the Virtual Boy, which was a spectacular flop due to discomfort and monochrome graphics.
1996: Various PC VR headsets emerged, but were too expensive, underpowered, and faced a lack of content.

These early attempts failed to overcome what I call the “3 C’s” of unsatisfactory VR:

Comfort: Heavy, bulky headsets cause fatigue and nausea.
Cost: High system requirements and headset prices put VR out of most consumers’ reach.
Content: There were few compelling games and applications that justified the investment needed for VR.

As a result, VR was unable to gain a foothold beyond niche enthusiast audiences.

The Modern Age of VR Emerges

More recently, new technologies have improved VR’s prospects.

2010: Palmer Luckey debuts the first Oculus Rift prototype.
2014: Facebook acquires Oculus for $2 billion. The Rift VR headset is released in 2016.
2015: HTC partners with Valve to launch premium VR system HTC Vive.
2016: Sony launches PlayStation VR for PS4 console gaming.

Thanks to advances in display, tracking, and graphics technologies, these modern VR systems overcome many of the original “3 C’s.”

Comfort improves with lighter headsets and better optics.
Cost becomes more reasonable for many gamers as PC and console specs advance.
Content grows via big investments from major players.

As a result, I finally invested in VR myself and was amazed by the immersive experiences modern headsets can now provide.

Current State of VR Adoption

So how many other gamers have joined me in purchasing VR hardware?

The data shows adoption rising steadily, but VR is still far from mainstream.

VR Headset Sales

According to surveys by Statista:

About 5 million PlayStation VR headsets had sold by 2019.
Roughly 2 million HTC Vive headsets were estimated sold by 2019.
Approximately 1 million Oculus Rift headsets had sold by 2019.

Considering there are an estimated 150+ million gamers with a PC or console that can handle VR, these headset sales indicate that only around 5% of compatible systems have adopted VR. Clearly, VR still has room to grow within the gaming community.

VR Software Sales

On the software side, SuperData reports a few breakout VR games:

Beat Saber sold 1 million copies in 2018 across all platforms.
Skyrim VR sold 460,000 copies on PlayStation VR.
Rec Room has 1 million monthly active VR users.

However, total VR software revenue was only around $1 billion in 2018. Traditional gaming revenue surpassed $130 billion that same year. So again, VR gaming remains just a small niche within the broader video game market.

Why VR Has Yet to Reach Critical Mass

Given the measured growth but limited mainstream success of modern VR so far, why hasn’t it taken off more rapidly? A few key factors are holding it back.

Cost Remains Prohibitive for Many

The expense of quality VR hardware puts it out of reach for most casual gamers.

A standalone Oculus Quest headset costs $399.
The Valve Index headset alone costs $499, with full kit at $999.
On top of that, a capable gaming PC costs $800+ and may need upgrades.

Not everyone can justify spending well over $1000 for PC VR. And while PlayStation VR runs cheaper at $299, it still requires owning a PS4 console.

Compelling Content is Lacking

VR lacks system-selling “killer apps” that motivate players to buy headsets en masse.

No VR games yet have matched major flat-screen blockbusters like Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto, or Red Dead Redemption in scope, scale, and polish.
Ports of AAA franchises like Skyrim or Fallout give a taste, but often lack the full depth of bespoke VR-first games.
Small indie studios have filled gaps with great games like Beat Saber, but lack big budgets to polish longer experiences.

Without a steady stream of big VR releases to motivate purchases, growth stalls.

Novelty Factor Wears Off Quickly

For many gamers, initial VR novelty gives way to exhaustion and frustration with real world limitations.

A friend of mine shared frustrations when I asked why he stopped using his Oculus:

“At first, VR blew my mind and felt like the future. But the novelty wore off quickly after I played through the handful of decent games. Plus, headaches and nausea from long sessions made me avoid it.”

As amazing as VR can be, current tech still strains our bodies and ergonomics in ways that limit enjoyment for many users.

The Road Ahead: What Will it Take for VR to Go Mainstream?

Given the current rate of adoption, VR may remain mostly a niche gaming market in the short term. But there are signs of hope and progress that could lead to broader mainstream success down the road.

Upcoming Hardware Advances

Expected improvements like wireless headsets could boost mass appeal.

Wireless: Removing cables enhances ease of use and limits tripping hazards. The Oculus Quest is fully wireless now, and PC headsets could follow.
Lighter/More Comfortable: Reduced size, weight, and new ergonomic designs will help extend comfortable play sessions.
Better Displays: Higher resolution, expanded fields of view, and variable focus will make visuals look increasingly realistic and ease eye strain.
Powerful Graphics: Faster GPUs will enable more immersive and detailed worlds at higher frame rates.

As headsets get smaller, sharper, and more advanced while retaining reasonable pricing, adoption should accelerate.

Maturing Content Libraries

A robust catalog of games with VR-first design will give players more reasons to take the plunge.

Upcoming titles lead the way:

Medal of Honor: AAA VR shooter from Respawn Entertainment.
Lone Echo II: Highly anticipated sequel to acclaimed Oculus exclusive.
Assassin’s Creed / Splinter Cell: Ubisoft developing major VR-only versions of major franchises.

As more developers plan ambitious, ground-up VR projects rather than rushed ports, there will be more “must play” experiences attracting new gamers to the medium.

Mainstream Recognition

Pop culture visibility and word-of-mouth enthusiasm will spread awareness and acceptance of quality VR.

Popularity of streaming: Seeing PewDiePie and other influencers enjoying VR will pique interest from fans.
System sellers entering the zeitgeist: Games like Beat Saber and Half-Life: Alyx driving passionate recommendations.
Shared VR experiences: As more friend groups and families embrace VR for bonding and fun, visibility grows.

This kind of organic evangelism will help VR gaming feel less niche and more accepted among everyday gamers.

The X Factor: VR as the Metaverse Hub

An as-yet-unknown factor that could supercharge VR adoption is its potential role as the hub for the metaverse – persistent virtual worlds blending aspects of social networks, gaming, and commerce.

If VR becomes the preferred interface forDigitally projected avatars of real people interacting and exploring a virtual global village could represent the next era of human communication and connection. Especially in a post-pandemic world, these possibilities are compelling.
VR seems well positioned to spearhead this shift as the most immersive and life-like method for inhabiting virtual spaces.
If this future comes to pass, the metaverse could rapidly pull VR into the mainstream and popular culture.

In that scenario, gaming may just be the beginning of how VR reshapes society at large. Only time will tell…

The Long Game: Cautious Optimism for VR’s Future

Despite the slow start, the long-term outlook for virtual reality gaming remains strong in my view. The steady trajectory of hardware improvements and design learnings gives VR running room to gain widespread adoption once the right combination of price and performance is achieved. We need patience and sustained investment to allow the VR content ecosystem to mature. But the foundations have been laid for a new generation of transformative and genre-defining VR games that could shatter the limits of traditional AAA gaming. Virtual reality’s hidden strains on the human body present tricky challenges still needing clever solutions. Yet the momentum behind VR feels harder to derail with each passing year. When all the pieces come together, VR gaming may finally realize its blockbuster breakthrough into the mainstream – perhaps sooner than we think.