Introduction
Foldable screens represent an exciting new frontier in smartphone design and functionality. After years of hype and false starts, major manufacturers like Samsung, Motorola, and Huawei have finally brought foldable devices to market. With improving durability and dropping prices, foldable phones seem poised for a breakout. But will 2024 be the year they truly go mainstream? Let’s dive into the key factors.
Current State of Foldable Phones
Foldable phones have come a long way technologically in a short time. The first generation devices launched in 2019 were plagued with issues like fragile screens and poor app optimization. But the second generation foldables in 2020-2021 showed dramatic improvements in reliability and software support.
Brands like Samsung made major engineering advances with their new ultra-thin glass displays. Huawei and Motorola also launched improved second generation foldables to positive reviews. This shows the technology is rapidly maturing.
However, high prices around $1500 have limited foldable phone sales so far. Most models sell only a few million units globally. But with costs declining each year, foldables are becoming more affordable for mainstream buyers.
Market Trends Favoring Foldables
Several promising trends suggest 2024 could be a breakout year for foldables:
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Component costs – Screens and hinges are getting cheaper to produce each generation. This should lower foldable phone prices below $1000.
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Phone saturation – Many consumers now hold onto phones for 3-4 years before upgrading. Foldables provide a major reason to upgrade.
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New form factors – Foldables open the door to more experimental designs like tri-fold or rollable phones. More choice may attract buyers.
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Improved apps – Developers are optimizing more apps to take advantage of foldable dual-screens. This improves the experience.
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Carrier promotions – Providers like Verizon and EE are offering deals to spur foldable sales. This makes purchasing more affordable.
Challenges Holding Foldables Back
However, there are still challenges to overcome before foldables go fully mainstream:
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Durability fears – Despite reinforcements, glass remains more fragile than a normal screen. Many consumers worry about damage.
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Tablet replacement? – Large unfoldable screens compete with users’ tablets. Most consumers may not need two large-screen devices.
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Software fragmentation – Apps need proper optimization to benefit from foldable dual-screens. This will take time.
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Few flagship options – Samsung dominates the market. More brands need to launch foldable phones to drive competition and choice.
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond
Foldable phone sales are projected to grow 10x from 2020 to 2024, reaching over 30 million units. But that is still only around 5% of the total smartphone market.
For foldables to truly go mainstream, analysts project they will need to capture 15-20% of phone sales. That may not happen until 2026 or later.
Key milestones to watch for in 2024:
- Multiple foldable models under $1000
- Foldables as flagship phones from Apple, Google, Xiaomi
- Rollable/scrollable screens gain traction
- Majority of apps optimized for foldables
If these milestones are achieved in 2024, foldable screens could approach mainstream status. But complete mainstream adoption may take a few more years as costs drop and form factors stabilize. Either way, the future looks bright for foldable phones revolutionizing the mobile industry.
