The Quantum Computing Threat to Encryption
In the rapidly evolving world of technology, the advent of quantum computing poses a significant threat to the security of our digital communications. One of the most crucial quantum computing algorithms, known as Shor’s algorithm, has the potential to quickly break the encryption systems that are currently used to secure internet traffic and protect sensitive information.
While today’s quantum computers are not yet powerful enough to execute Shor’s algorithm in a practical setting, the expert consensus is that these “cryptanalytically relevant quantum computers” (CRQCs) will likely be developed sometime in the 2030s. The consequences of a hostile actor’s use of Shor’s algorithm could be devastating, as it would grant them access to an immeasurable amount of critically sensitive information, including personal data, financial records, commercial research, and classified national security data.
The Urgent Need for Post-Quantum Cryptography
Fortunately, proactive measures are already being taken to address this looming threat. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is in the process of standardizing new post-quantum cryptography (PQC) protocols that are expected to resist attacks from both classical and quantum computers. Upgrading communications systems to use PQC will be a long, complex, and expensive process that will extend over many years.
In recognition of the critical importance of this transition, President Biden issued National Security Memorandum 10 in May 2022, which sets “the goal of mitigating as much of the quantum risk as is feasible by 2035” and directs all U.S. government agencies to take steps towards adopting PQC.
The Race to Develop Quantum Computers
One of the key factors that will determine the severity of the threat posed by a CRQC is whether or not its existence becomes publicly known. As soon as the threat becomes concrete, most vulnerable organizations will immediately move to upgrade their communications systems to PQC, which may be disruptive but will quickly neutralize most attack vectors.
However, the true nightmare scenario would be if a hostile actor, such as a criminal organization or a hostile foreign government, were to covertly operate a CRQC over a long period before PQC becomes universally adopted. This could allow them to collect a vast amount of sensitive information undetected.
Fortunately, it is extremely unlikely that any organization will be able to develop a CRQC in secret, for several reasons:
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Stiff Competition from Commercial Industry: The development of high-performance quantum computers is a highly competitive field, with many private companies racing to produce state-of-the-art machines for a variety of commercial applications, not just decryption. These companies are collectively very well-funded, with U.S. quantum computing startups alone raising over $1.2 billion in venture capital. Any organization attempting to secretly develop a CRQC would need enormous financial resources to compete with this industry.
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Difficulty in Hiding Talent: The pool of experts at the cutting edge of quantum computing development is relatively small, and they are well-known within the expert community. If many of the top technical experts suddenly left their organizations or stopped publishing, this would be immediately evident, just as it was during the Manhattan Project.
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Physical Resource Requirements: Estimates suggest that a CRQC might require as much as 125 megawatts of electrical power, which is a significant fraction of the total power produced by a typical coal-fired power plant. A device that requires its own dedicated power plant would leave considerable evidence of its existence, making it difficult to hide.
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Commercial Applications Precede Decryption: There is strong theoretical evidence that many commercial applications of quantum computers, such as chemical modeling or numerical optimization, will be technically easier to implement than Shor’s algorithm. This means that these commercial applications are likely to emerge before the development of a CRQC capable of breaking current encryption standards.
Protecting Privacy in the Age of AI
While the threat of a CRQC may not be imminent, the increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) and the growth of Big Tech companies pose significant challenges to individual privacy. The vast amounts of data collected and analyzed by these technologies have the potential to be used in ways that infringe on personal privacy and civil liberties.
One notable example is the case of Google’s location-tracking practices, which came under scrutiny in 2018 when an investigation found that the company continued to store location data even when users had turned off location tracking. This breach of trust has led to concerns about the extent of data collected by Google and how it is used, as well as the potential for misuse by third parties.
Similarly, the use of AI in law enforcement, such as predictive policing software and facial recognition technology, has raised concerns about bias, discrimination, and the erosion of civil liberties. These systems have the potential to perpetuate and exacerbate existing societal biases, and their opaque decision-making processes make it difficult to ensure transparency and accountability.
The integration of AI into hiring and recruitment processes has also raised concerns about fairness and bias. The case of Amazon’s AI-powered recruiting tool, which was found to discriminate against women, highlights the need for careful consideration and testing of these tools to prevent the perpetuation of unfair practices.
Addressing Privacy Concerns in the Age of AI and Quantum Computing
As the use of AI and the development of quantum computing continue to advance, it is crucial that we take a proactive approach to addressing privacy concerns and ensuring that these technologies are developed and used in an ethical and responsible manner.
Strengthening Regulation and Oversight
Governments around the world have taken various measures to protect their citizens’ privacy, such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in the European Union and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) in the United States. However, these regulations must be continuously updated and strengthened to keep pace with the rapidly evolving technological landscape.
Policymakers and regulatory bodies must work closely with industry and civil society to establish clear guidelines and oversight mechanisms for the development and use of AI and quantum computing technologies. This includes ensuring transparency, accountability, and the protection of individual rights and freedoms.
Investing in Data Security and Encryption
As the threat of quantum-powered decryption looms, it is critical that organizations and individuals prioritize the adoption of robust data security and encryption measures. The transition to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) must be a top priority, and government agencies and private sector entities must work together to ensure a smooth and timely implementation.
Empowering Individuals
Ultimately, the protection of privacy in the age of AI and quantum computing requires the active participation of individuals. Consumers must be empowered with transparency and control over their personal data, and they must be educated on the importance of privacy and the steps they can take to safeguard their information.
By working together – through effective regulation, robust data security measures, and individual empowerment – we can build a future where the transformative power of AI and quantum computing is harnessed in a way that respects and protects individual privacy and civil liberties.
Conclusion: Embracing the Future, Protecting Privacy
The rapid advancements in AI and quantum computing present both exciting opportunities and significant challenges when it comes to the protection of individual privacy. While the threat of quantum-powered decryption may not be immediate, the growing power of Big Tech companies and the increasing use of AI in various aspects of our lives have already raised serious concerns about data privacy and civil liberties.
By taking a proactive and collaborative approach, we can work to ensure that these emerging technologies are developed and used in a way that benefits society as a whole, while also safeguarding the fundamental human right to privacy. This will require a concerted effort from governments, industry, and individuals, but the stakes are too high to ignore.
As we navigate the complex landscape of AI and quantum computing, let us remain vigilant in our pursuit of a future where the transformative power of these technologies is harnessed in a manner that respects and protects the privacy and dignity of all individuals. Only then can we truly embrace the promise of a digital world that is both innovative and secure.
