In 2024, open source software will absolutely be a viable alternative to proprietary software for many use cases. As open source continues to mature and gain adoption, it will become the preferred option for more individuals and organizations. There are several key reasons why open source software is likely to see increased usage and success over the next few years.
Adoption Trends
Open source software has seen massive growth in adoption over the past decade. This growth is likely to accelerate going into 2024. There are a few key adoption trends that point to the increasing viability of open source software:
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Cost savings – Open source software is free to use and modify. This can lead to massive cost savings for organizations compared to proprietary software that requires expensive licensing fees. As more companies realize these savings, open source adoption will surge.
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Security – The ability to view and modify open source code means vulnerabilities can be found and fixed quickly. Open source software is becoming viewed as more secure than closed proprietary code. Its security will drive further adoption.
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Cloud computing – Open source software dominates in cloud computing. Almost all major cloud platforms are built using OSS like Linux and Kubernetes. As cloud usage grows, open source adoption will grow too.
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Developer preference – Developers overwhelmingly prefer open source tools over proprietary ones. As new generations of developers enter the workforce, they will continue to drive open source usage.
Maturing Ecosystems
Another key factor boosting the viability of open source in 2024 is the maturation of open source ecosystems for many software categories:
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Operating systems – Linux now powers most web servers, supercomputers, and cloud infrastructure. It also has a growing desktop/laptop presence. The Linux ecosystem will continue maturing and improving.
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Programming languages – Open source languages like Python, JavaScript, and Rust are now competitive or superior to closed-source options for many use cases. These languages have passionate communities constantly improving them.
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Databases – Open source databases like MySQL, MongoDB, and PostgreSQL have proven their worth across industries. They can now compete feature-wise with proprietary databases.
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Machine learning – Nearly all popular machine learning frameworks are open source. Tools like TensorFlow and PyTorch have full ecosystem support, libraries, and tutorials available.
Still Room for Growth
While open source software has come a long way, there is still room for additional growth and progress to make it competitive for more use cases by 2024:
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Usability – Some open source tools still lack the usability and polish of proprietary competitors. As usability improves, adoption can grow further.
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Specialized tools – Proprietary software still dominates some specialized niches like computer graphics, electronic design automation, and video game engines. Open source options need to mature here.
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Mobile operating systems – Android and iOS dominate the mobile OS space currently. But new open mobile OS options could emerge.
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Business applications – Proprietary software leads for now in CRM, ERP, HR software etc. But open alternatives like Odoo are proving viable for small and mid-size businesses.
The Future Looks Bright
While challenges remain, the overall trends point to open source software continuing its march into the mainstream over the next few years. As adoption spreads, more resources and contributors will improve open source tools, creating a virtuous cycle. I expect that by 2024, open source will have viable, mature options available across software categories and for companies of all sizes. The future of open source software looks extremely promising.
