Introduction
Foldable phones have generated a lot of buzz since being introduced just a few years ago. Brands like Samsung and Motorola have released foldable models, touting their portability and larger screens. But are these novel devices just a passing fad, or are they the future of smartphones? I examine the progress of foldable phone technology so far and make my 2024 predictions on whether they are here to stay.
The Promise of Foldable Phones
Foldable phones aim to provide the portability of a regular smartphone with the larger screen size of a tablet when unfolded. Here are some of the touted benefits:
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Portability: When folded, the phone can fit into a pocket or small bag. The compact size makes it easy to carry around.
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Multitasking: The larger inner screen when unfolded provides more room for split-screen apps, taking notes, drawing, and other tasks.
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Media consumption: The expanded display enhances videos, games, and other media. No more squinting at a tiny screen.
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Productivity: The flexibility suits both productivity and leisure. Quickly check emails folded, then unfold to review documents.
Foldable Phone Sales So Far
Foldable phones first hit the market in 2019, but sales have been modest compared to traditional slab smartphones:
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Global foldable phone sales were just 1.9 million units in 2020 (IDC). For comparison, overall smartphone sales exceeded 1 billion units.
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In 2021, foldable phone sales are estimated to reach 9 million units worldwide (Gartner).
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Samsung dominates the market with an estimated 88% market share in 2021 (DSCC).
So foldable phones remain a niche product, constrained by high prices and limited availability. But are sales accelerating enough to drive future growth?
Recent Foldable Phone Developments
Despite modest sales so far, foldable phone technology continues advancing rapidly:
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Wider availability – Foldable phones were initially limited to premium brands like Samsung and niche players. But models are now coming from Motorola, Oppo, Xiaomi, Huawei and others, at lower price points.
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New form factors – In addition to vertical clamshells (like the Galaxy Z Flip) and horizontal book-style foldables (like the Galaxy Z Fold), new form factors include rollable, tri-fold, and slide-out designs.
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Improved durability – Early reviews criticized fragility and reports of broken screens. But durability is improving with stronger ultrathin glass.
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Spec upgrades – Foldable phones now feature flagship-level specs like high-end processors, 5G connectivity, and high refresh rate displays.
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Lower prices – Prices have dropped from $2,000+ originally to around $1,000 for recent flagship foldable phones. Moto’s Razr 5G lowered the barrier further at $700.
My 2024 Predictions
Foldable phone technology and availability will likely advance further over the next few years. Here are my predictions for 2024:
Prediction 1: Foldable Phones Will Remain A Niche Category
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Foldables will likely stay under 10% of overall smartphone sales. Clamshell foldables like the Galaxy Z Flip will fare better than book-style foldables.
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High prices and durability concerns will continue limiting mainstream adoption. Expect foldables to stay a premium-priced segment.
Prediction 2: New Form Factors Will Emerge
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Rollable and slidable displays will arrive but remain concept devices. Interesting demos but limited availability.
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Tri-fold and other multi-fold designs will evolve from prototypes to actual products.
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Outward folding designs will be explored but face challenges achieving market viability.
Prediction 3: Under-Display Cameras Will Improve
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Cover displays will adopt under-display cameras to create uninterrupted screens.
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UDC tech will progress but image quality concerns will persist through 2024.
Prediction 4: Google And Apple Will Remain Cautious
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Google will support foldables on Android but not launch its own model.
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Apple will take a wait-and-see approach through 2024 before fully embracing foldables.
The Bottom Line
While foldable phones will continue advancing through 2024, they are unlikely to displace slab smartphones as mainstream devices. Prices, durability, and design challenges remain. But expect foldables to carve out a small but growing niche appealing to early adopters. Their future as a mass-market product remains uncertain. But their novelty ensures foldable phones will remain a conversation piece through 2024 and beyond.
