A Glimpse into the Future
Years ago, I was captivated by Doris Kearns Goodwin’s book “Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln.” It was a revolutionary read, much like the two demonstrations of technology that have struck me as truly groundbreaking in my lifetime.
The first was in 1980, when I was introduced to a graphical user interface – the forerunner of every modern operating system, including Windows. As I sat with the brilliant programmer Charles Simonyi, we immediately started brainstorming about all the possibilities this user-friendly approach to computing could unlock. Little did we know that this moment would help set the agenda for Microsoft in the years to come.
The second eye-opening experience came just last year. I had been meeting with the team from OpenAI since 2016 and was impressed by their steady progress. But in mid-2022, they truly blew me away. I challenged them to train an artificial intelligence to pass an Advanced Placement biology exam – a test that requires critical thinking, not just regurgitation of facts. I thought it would keep them busy for two or three years. They finished it in just a few months. When I met with them again, I watched in awe as their AI model, GPT, aced the exam and even provided thoughtful answers to non-scientific questions. I knew I had just witnessed the most important advance in technology since the graphical user interface.
The Rise of Artificial Intelligence
This experience inspired me to think about all the ways that AI can transform our world in the next five to 10 years. The development of AI is as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the internet, and the mobile phone. It will change how we work, learn, travel, get healthcare, and communicate with each other. Entire industries will reorient around it, and businesses will distinguish themselves by how well they leverage this technology.
As someone who is now focused on philanthropy full-time, I’ve been particularly excited about how AI can help reduce some of the world’s most pressing inequities. In the UK and globally, AI has the potential to save lives, improve education, and tackle climate change in ways that benefit everyone, not just the well-off.
Empowering the Workforce
One of the most immediate ways AI will transform our lives is in the workplace. While humans are still better than AI at many tasks, there are numerous jobs where our capabilities are not fully utilized. Activities like sales, customer service, and administrative work often involve decision-making but not the ability to continuously learn.
Corporations have training programs for these roles, and the data sets used to train human workers can now be used to train AI models as well. As computing power becomes cheaper, AI assistants will be able to enhance our work by helping with tasks like writing emails, managing inboxes, and providing contextual information. Ultimately, these AI “co-pilots” will allow us to be more productive and focused on the work we find most meaningful.
Of course, this raises valid concerns about the impact on the workforce. Governments and the private sector will need to work together to ensure a smooth transition, providing the necessary support and retraining for workers. But the demand for human skills like teaching, caregiving, and supporting the elderly will never go away. AI will free us up to focus on these important roles.
Revolutionizing Global Health and Education
When it comes to global health and education, I believe AI can have a transformative impact in reducing inequity. In the medical field, AI-powered tools can help healthcare workers be more efficient, freeing them up to focus on critical tasks. AI-driven advances like AI-powered ultrasound machines that can be used with minimal training have the potential to save lives in resource-poor regions.
Similarly, in education, AI-driven software can tailor content to individual learning styles, measure understanding, and provide immediate feedback. While these tools will need to be carefully tested and regulated, they have the power to revolutionize teaching and learning, especially in low-income schools that have historically been left behind.
Governments and philanthropic organizations will play a crucial role in ensuring that the benefits of AI are equitably distributed. It’s not enough for market forces to drive the development of this technology – we need to intentionally focus AI on the world’s biggest problems.
Navigating the Challenges
Of course, the rise of AI also raises valid concerns about risks and unintended consequences. Issues around privacy, bias, job displacement, and the potential for misuse will need to be addressed. Developers are working to fix technical limitations, like AI’s struggle with abstract reasoning and context-specific responses.
Bigger questions about the long-term implications of superintelligent AI systems also loom on the horizon. Will these machines be able to establish their own goals, and will those goals conflict with humanity’s interests? As I’ve explored in my reading of books like “Superintelligence” by Nick Bostrom and “A Thousand Brains” by Jeff Hawkins, these are complex issues that will require careful consideration and thoughtful policymaking.
Embracing the Future
Despite the challenges, I’m incredibly excited about the potential of AI to transform our world for the better. The breakthroughs we’ve witnessed in the past year are just the beginning. As this technology continues to evolve, we have the opportunity to harness its power to solve some of humanity’s most pressing problems, from global health inequities to the climate crisis.
By approaching AI with both enthusiasm and prudence, by balancing its risks and rewards, and by ensuring that its benefits are equitably distributed, we can unlock a future that is more just, more prosperous, and more fulfilling for all. The computing revolution is far from over – in fact, it’s just getting started.
